The Point of No Return

Obviously, there is no way to empirically know in advance when “the point of no return” is reached in historical transition periods.  It is also difficult to know when the world might be right in the middle of passing that point.  Only hindsight and data analysis clearly shows those turning points in the rear view mirror.  However events, as they are unfolding right now, argue strongly that we are very close to a major turn in the future history of America.  Consequentially as well, there is a coincident turn in our global civilization, given America’s enormous impact on world affairs.

Many people have been enamored of the popular book, “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,” by William Strauss and Neil Howe since its publication in the 90’s.  It was not a particularly defining book for anyone having even peripherally studied historical and economic cycles and the works of other authors on the subject.  However, it was a handy summary of how those cycles collide to reach a “nexus point.”  Studies such as  Dr. Joesph Tainter’s 1988 book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” are more illuminating from the standpoint of the archaeological evidence that shows the commonalities between various major societal collapse events over 5000 years of history.

Such events or transitions, in general, are more easily understood in view  of continuing and consistent behavior rather than being particular events in time.  Generally economic, political and social behaviors have all reached a nadir.  If certain behaviors are sustained the turning point reaches the inevitable break point.  Both subtly and overtly, whether intellectually analyzed or viscerally felt by the population as a whole, I’d speculate that most folks today believe we’re at “the point of no return.”

This writer believes there should be little doubt, in 2015, that the “neoclassical economic synthesis” lies at the heart of the turning about to commence.  Neoclassical economics in practice, in conjunction with the global central bank cartel and fiat currency regime, is the core of destruction and the “hollowing-out” that is proceeding within the entire global financial and government fiscal structure.  The injection of trillions of dollars, euros and yen liquidity via the various central banks have propped-up and forestalled the inevitable reconciliation of debt for almost 7 years.  The next downleg is set to begin in the next two years.  The doubling, tripling and, in some debt sectors, quadrupling of debt levels in the last 6 years is coming to a head.

In contrast, it is the Classical economic model in conjunction with the adjunct explanations offered through the Austrian School that offers the only full explanation for the behavior of both free and regulated markets and their business cycles.  It also explains why, at this point, there is no escaping the enormous destruction about to proceed in the next turn, which was described in chapter 6 of  “The Citizen’s Last Stand:  Are YOU Ready?” as “The Grand Correction.”

Blowing inter-galactic levels of liquidity into the system has created a temporary lull in that inevitable Correction and, in consequence, made the final reckoning many times larger and more devastating to the long term economy.  It has re-inflated the market and real estate bubbles and provided a mirage of economic activity through government spending and deficits.  For the “hot money” (well-connected and speculative investors) in the top-end of various markets it has created grand opportunities to take money from the rest of the market suckers, thinking they’re following an actual “economic trend.”  The suckers better be smart enough to know when to get out, before the turn, or everything they thought they had will immediately disappear.  Pension funds and the bond markets will be hit the hardest behind the equity markets.

For a more in-depth review and guide how to navigate the coming storm, after my own volume, I highly recommend James Rickards 2014 book, “The Death of Money:  The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System.”   While Mr. Rickards has a slightly different take on some of the features of the take-down, we’re 96% on the same page and it is a wonderful reference.  Mental awareness and preparation are the two greatest tools anyone could have at their disposal between now and 2020.

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